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Athletics might look simple from the outside — the fastest, furthest or highest wins. But when it comes to betting, some events are far more unpredictable than others. Whether it’s a sprinter mistiming their start, a jumper fouling a huge leap, or an outsider suddenly hitting form, athletics can produce shocks in ways that catch bookmakers (and punters) off guard.

That’s part of the fun. It’s also why so many fans are on the lookout for betting sites with welcome bonus offers before major championships, giving themselves some free bets to use on their top picks.

Here are a few events where betting is trickier than you might expect — and where surprises are almost guaranteed.

The Men’s 100m: One False Start Can Change Everything

The years of Usain Bolt's sprint domination are long gone and we're now in a generation with a bunch of sprinters capable of winning, making it extremely tricky to predict. Little over a tenth of a second separated the top five in the 2025 World Championship final as Oblique Seville took gold. But Letsile Tebogo, who was strongly tipped for a medal, was disqualified due to a false start.

It was a prime example of the unpredictabe nature of the men's 100m final. Big names tend to attract the shortest odds, but history shows they're not always the ones standing on the podium. Betting smart here often means looking beyond the favourite.

The Women’s 800m: Chaos in Two Laps

Middle-distance events are full of drama, but the women’s 800m stands out. Races are often decided by positioning rather than pure speed. A runner boxed in at the bell might have the legs to win but no space to move. Others can benefit from a perfect lane draw or a well-timed surge.

Lilian Odira proved exactly that at the 2025 World Championships with a huge upset in a championships record time as Olympic champion Keely Hodgkinson faltered at the line.

Long Jump & Triple Jump: Risk Meets Reward

In the field, nothing is more unpredictable than the horizontal jumps. One foul can wipe out a huge attempt, leaving favourites chasing consistency rather than distance. On the flip side, an underdog can land a “lifetime best” and suddenly leapfrog the field.

Olympic champion Miltiadis Tentoglou failed to make it to the second round at the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo in a huge upset after suffering a calf injury. Betting markets often underestimate this volatility, which makes the jumps a perfect hunting ground for punters who love risk-reward scenarios.

The Men’s 400m Hurdles: Brutal and Unforgiving

This event is often described as one of the toughest in athletics — and betting markets agree. A single clipped hurdle can ruin a race, and even world record holders aren’t immune. Three-time world champion Karsten Warholm surprisingly missed out on a podium at the Tokyo World Championships after some mistimed strides as he was overtaken in the final 50 metres.

The Decathlon & Heptathlon: Too Many Variables to Call

When athletes are competing across 10 or seven disciplines, anything can happen. A no-height in the pole vault or a poor javelin throw can completely rewrite the leaderboard. Multi-events also favour consistency over brilliance, which makes betting odds harder to judge.

Savvy punters know to look for athletes with solid all-rounders rather than one-off stars.

Final Word

Athletics isn’t always about picking the obvious favourite. For fans who love the unpredictability of sport, betting on events with higher variance — like sprints, jumps, or multi-events — offers both risk and reward. Just remember: the trickiest events to predict are often the most fun to watch.