Steve Smythe takes a look into his crystal ball and 100 days before the Olympics forecasts the male medal winners in Tokyo

At the beginning of the year at AW we made our Olympic predictions. We reviewed them last month at the end of the 2021 indoor season and now with 100 days to go we review if anything has changed in the early weeks of the outdoor season.

US publication Track and Field News has predicted their top three and to show how their perspective varies from ours, we put their predictions in brackets.

For the women's Olympic predictions CLICK here.

100m

Nothing much has changed from the early outdoor season with Ronnie Baker (9.94) the initial world leader.

1 Noah Lyles (USA) 9.85

2 Andre de Grasse (CAN) 9.86

3 Su Bingtian (CHN) 9.88

4 Akine Simbine (RSA) (TFN2); 5 Trayvon Bromell (USA) (TFN1); 6 Ronnie Baker (USA) (TFN3); 7 Zharnel Hughes (GBR); 8 Yoshihide Kiryu (JPN)

200m

Terrance Laird (19.81) is the clear outdoor leader but will he make the US team? Kenny Bednarek has done a very wind-assisted 19.65 though.

1 Noah Lyles (USA) 19.64 (TFN1)

2 Andre de Grasse (CAN) 19.77

3 Xie Zhen (CHN) 19.80

4 Adam Gemili (GBR); 5 Matthew Boling (USA); 6 Kenny Bednarek (USA) (TFN2); 7 Aaron Brown (CAN); 8 Miguel Francis (GBR). Also, Alex Quinonez (ECU) (TFN3)

400m

The big names haven't ventured outdoors at this event with Bryce Deadmon quickest but unlikely that a time of 44.62 will make the US team. One big change though is that defending champion Wayde Van Niekerk has run a marginally wind-assisted 20.10 200m so is our new favourite.

1 Wayde Van Niekerk (RSA) 43.45 (TFN3)

2 Steven Gardiner (BAH) 43.65 (TFN1)

3 Michael Norman (USA) 43.70 (TFN2)

4 Kirani James (GRN); 5 Fred Kerley (USA); 6 Noah Williams (USA); 7 Demish Gaye (JAM); 8 Akeem Bloomfield (JAM)

800m

Nothing that has happened outdoors in 2021 has affected things with Australian Peter Bol (1:45.23) the quickest so far.

1 Donavan Brazier (USA) 1:43.40 (TFN1)

2 Elliot Giles (GBR) 1:43.66

3 Nijel Amos (BOT) 1:43.88

4 Emmanuel Korir (KEN); 5 Daniel Rowden (GBR); 6 Bryce Hoppel (USA); 7 Ferguson Cheruiyot (KEN); 8 Wycliffe Kinyamal (KEN) (TFN2). Also, Marco Arop (CAN) (TFN3)

1500m

Adam Ali Musaab ran an overlooked 3:32.41 outdoors in Doha in February but has not backed that up and no one else has come remotely close to that time so far.

1 Timothy Cheruiyot (KEN) 3:31.44 (TFN1)

2 Jakob Ingebrigtsen (NOR) 3:31.50 (TFN2)

3 Oliver Hoare (AUS) 3:32.45

4 Matt Centrowitz (USA); 5 Jake Wightman (GBR) (TFN3); 6 Adam Ali Musaab (QAT); 7 Cole Hocker (USA); 8 Josh Kerr (GBR)

5000m

Grant Fisher (13:02.53) temporarily heads the rankings with the big names from last summer still to surface.

1 Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) 12:53.40 (TFN2)

2 Jacob Kiplimo (UGA) 12:54.25 (TFN1)

3 Selemon Barega (ETH) 12:54.66 (TFN3)

4 Yomif Kejelcha (ETH); 5 Paul Chelimo (USA); 6 Nicholas Kimeli (KEN); 7 Mohammed Ahmed (CAN); 8 Berihu Aregawi (ETH)

10,000m

Marc Scott (27:10.41) tops the lists but the stars from previous years haven't raced yet apart from the Ethiopians with Berihu Aregawi winning the Ethiopian Championships and replacing our original third selection Yomif Kejelcha who was only fourth in that race.

1 Joshua Cheptegei (UGA) 27:01.55 (TFN1)

2 Jacob Kiplimo (UGA) 27:01.80 (TFN2)

3 Berihu Aregawi (ETH) 27:03.45

4 Mo Farah (GBR): 5 Rhonex Kipruto (KEN); 6 Selemon Barega (ETH): 7 Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH); 8 Mohammed Ahmed (CAN) NB Yomif Kejelcha (ETH) (TFN3)

Marathon

Kengo Suzuki's 2:04:56 came too late for Japanese selection and nothing has changed so far in terms of 2021 form.

1 Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) 2:04:33 (TFN1)

2 Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) 2:04:45

3 Lelisa Desisa (ETH) 2:04:49

4 Lawrence Cherono (KEN); 5 Galen Rupp (USA); 6 Berhanu Legesse (ETH) (TFN2); 7 Shogo Nakamura (JPN); 8 Amos Kipruto (KEN) (TFN3)

3000m steeplechase

Indian Avinash Sable (8:20.20) leads the rankings for now but it likely to be African dominated in just over 100 days time.

1 Getnet Wale (ETH) 8:01.45

2 Lamecha Girma (ETH) 8:01.65 (TFN1)

3 Conseslus Kipruto (KEN) 8:02.60 (TFN2)

4 Soufiane El Bakkali (MAR) (TFN3); 5 Leonard Bett (KEN); 6 Benjamin Kigen (KEN); 7 Chalo Beyo (ETH); 8 Evan Jager (KEN)

110m hurdles

Indoor record-holder Grant Holloway has already run a wind-assisted 13.04 though Damion Thomas heads the legal marks with a 13.22.

1 Grant Holloway (USA) (TFN1) 12.93 (TFN1)

2 Omar McLeod (JAM) (TFN3) 13.01 (TFN3)

3 Daniel Roberts (USA) 13.10

4 Orlando Ortega (ESP) (TFN2); 5 Andy Pozzi (GBR); 6 Sergey Shubenkov (ANA); 7 Damion Thomas (JAM); 8 Shunsuke Izumiya (JPN)

400m hurdles

Kenny Selmon (48.88) heads the world lists but is another who will need to go faster just to make the US team.

1 Karsten Warholm (NOR) 46.80 (TFN1)

2 Rai Benjamin (USA) 46.94 (TFN2)

3 Abderrahman Samba (QAT) 47.05 (TFN3)

4 Kyron McMaster (IVB); 5 TJ Holmes (USA); 6 Patryk Dobek (POL); 7 Yasmani Copello (TUR); 8 Kenny Selmon (USA)

High jump

Kiwi Hamish Kerr (2.31m) leads the way outdoors but the indoor marks still hold sway in the predictions.

1 Maksim Nedasekau (BLR) 2.37m (TFN1)

2 Mutaz Essa Barshim (QAT) 2.35m

3 Gianmarco Tamberi (ITA) 2.35m (TFN2)

4 Wang Yu (CHN); 5 Andrii Protsenko (UKR); 6 Tomohiro Shinno (JPN): 7 Mateusz Przybylko (GER); 8 Naoto Tobe (JPN) (TFN3)

Pole vault

In these events the outdoor marks are irrelevant (KC Lightfoot and Kurtis Marschall both 5.80m) to what happened indoors.

1 Mondo Duplantis (SWE) 6.20m (TFN1)

2 Sam Kendricks (USA) 6.00m (TFN2)

3 Renaud Lavillenie (FRA) 6.00m

4 Piotr Lisek (POL); 5 KC Lightfoot (USA) (TFN3); 6 Thiago Braz (BRA); 7 Menno Vloon (NED); 8 Chris Nilsen (USA)

Long jump

Arnovis Dalmero has done a wind-assisted 8.34m though world champion Tajay Gayle's 8.27m heads the legal lists.

1 Juan Miguel Echevarria (CUB) 8.50m (TFN1)

2 Tajay Gayle (JAM) 8.45m (TFN2)

3 Miltiádis Tentóglou (GRE) 8.43m

4 JuVaughn Harrison (USA) (TFN3); 5 Isaac Grimes (USA); 6 Huang Changzhou (CHN); 7 Wang Jianan (CHN); 8 Thomas Montler (SWE)

Triple jump

O'Brien Wasome is top now with a windy 17.06m and a legal 17.05m but 100 days later expect a metre further to take the title.

1 Christian Taylor (USA) 18.01m TFN1

2 Fabrice Zango Hugues (BUR) 17.98m TFN2

3 Will Claye (USA) 17.95m TFN1

4 Pedro Pablo Pichardo (POR); 5 Omar Craddock (USA); 6 Zhu Yaming (CHN); 7 Andy Diaz (CUB) 8 Cristian Atanay Nápoles (CUB)

Shot put

Former world champion Tom Walsh (21.79m) is already in cracking outdoor form thanks to the Kiwi summer but the American's indoor form looked better.

1 Ryan Crouser (USA) 22.85 (TFN1)

2 Joe Kovacs (USA) 22.25 (TFN3)

3 Tom Walsh (NZL) 22.16 (TFN2)

4 Michal Haratyk (POL); 5 Tomas Stanek (CZE); 6 Turner Washington (USA); 7 Jacko Gill (NZL); 8 Leonardo Fabbri (ITA)

Discus

Kristjan Čeh (67.51m) has a good early season lead but 2020 outdoor form looks more relevant.

1 Daniel Stahl (SWE) 69.80m (TFN1)

2 Andrius Gudzius (LTU) 68.88m

3 Fedrick Dacres  (JAM) 68.66m (TFN2)

4 Mauricio Ortega (COL); 5 Lukas Weisshaidinger (AUT) (TFN3); 6 Kristjan Čeh (SLO); 7 Gudni Valur Gudnason (ISL); 8 Simon Pettersson (SWE)

Hammer

Hlib Piskunov showed he is a contender with an early 77.72m but the Poles have yet to surface.

1 Wojciech Nowicki (POL) 79.86m (TFN2)

2 Pawel Fajdek (POL) 78.88m (TFN3)

3 Bence Halasz (HUN) 78.84m (TFN1)

4 Rudy Winkler (USA); 5 Aaron Kangas (FIN); 6 Javier Cienfuegos (ESP); 7 Nick Miller (GBR); 8 Hlib Piskunov (UKR)

Javelin

Neeraj Chopra leads for now with 88.07m but Johannes Vetter has already thrown 87.27m.

1 Johannes Vetter (GER) 94.56m (TFN1)

2 Magnus Kirt (EST) 89.88m

3 Andreas Hoffman (GER) 88.84m

4 Anderson Peters (GRN) (TFN3); 5 Jakub Vadlejch (CZE); 6 Neeraj Chopra (IND) (TFN2); 7 Lassi Etelätalo (FIN); 8 Keshorn Walcott (TTO);

Decathlon

The much improved Karel Tilga (8484) heads it for now and could be a minor medal contender.

1 Kevin Mayer (FRA) 8956 (TFN1)

2 Niklaus Kaul (GER) 8878 (TFN2)

3 Damian Warner (CAN) 8740

4 Mailocel Uibo (EST) (TFN3); 5 Simon Ehammer (SUI); 6 Karel Tilga (EST); 7 Lindon Victor (GRN); 8 Ashley Moloney (AUS)

20km walk

Wang Kaihua has come into contention with a 1:16:54 late in March and could thwart the home challenge.

1 Toshikazu Yamanishi (JPN) 1:16:35 (TFN2)

2 Wang Kaihua (CHN), 1:16:40 (TFN1)

3 Elki Takahashi (JPN) 1:16:48

4 Koki Ikeda (JPN); 5 Perseus Karlström (SWE) (TFN3); 6 Salih Korkmaz (TUR); 7 Christopher Linke (GER); 8 Tom Bosworth (GBR)

50km walk

Satoshi Maruo's 3:38:42 heads the 2021 lists but his Japanese team-mates remain favourites.

1 Yusuke Suzuki (JPN) 3:35:15

2 Matej Toth (SVK) 3:36:40 (TFN2)

3 Masatora Kawano (JPN) 3:36:56 (TFN1)

4 João Vieira (POR); 5 Evan Dunfee (CAN); 6 Satoshi Maruo (JPN); 7 Niu Wenbin (CHN); 8 Wang Quin (CHN) NB Ihor Hlavan (UKR) (TFN3)

4x100m relay

China's 38.29 is first at present but the expected contenders have yet to compete.

1 USA 37.09 (TFN1)

2 Great Britain 37.25 (TFN3)

3 Japan 37.30

4 Jamaica (TFN2); 5 Brazil; 6 South Africa; 7 China; 8 Netherlands

4x400m relay

US Collegiate teams (led by North Carolina A&T 3:00.23) dominate for now but these will change drastically once the season is fully underway.

1 USA 2:55.20 (TFN1)

2 Jamaica 2:57.85 (TFN2)

3 Trinidad and Tobago 2:58.88 (TFN3)

4 Belgium; 5 Colombia; 6 Netherlands; 7 Great Britain; 8 Poland

For the women's Olympic predictions CLICK here.