World Half Marathon Championships: men's top 10 prediction
Major championships action returns in Poland on Saturday (October 17) as some of the globe’s best runners line up in Gdynia for the World Athletics Half Marathon Championships.
Click here for our 'who, what and when?' guide to the event.
He has not run a half-marathon yet and has been training for shorter events but it’s hard to look beyond Joshua Cheptegei as the favourite.
This summer he has smashed the world 5000m and 10,000m world records on the track to follow his 5km world record on the road in February of 12:51.
The Ugandan does have pedigree on the road at longer distances too as his 41:05 for 15km in Nijmegen less than a year ago proved.
That world best time shows his potential as it works out at 57:47 pace for the half-marathon.
Already the world 10,000m and cross-country champion, it is hard to see anyone breaking clear of him and his finish is vastly superior now to the 2017 World Championships 10,000m when only Mo Farah could outkick him.
The second most exciting runner is the line up is arguably his Ugandan team-mate Jacob Kiplimo.
While there are doubts as to whether he is really aged 19 as the IAAF records show, there are none about his current form or fitness even if he has not completed a half-marathon yet.
The 2017 world under-20 cross-country champion has looked one of the sharpest runners on the Diamond League circuit this summer, winning the 3000m in Rome in 7:26.64, the fastest time for 13 years putting him in the all-time top 10. He also ran 12:48.63 in winning over 5000m in Ostrava.
While he has no half-marathon form, he has run a Ugandan record 26:41 for the road 10km and ran a 43:00 15km in Sao Paulo on New Year’s Eve so cannot be discounted.
If this pair get to the finish in the leading group then it is hard to look beyond them and the Ugandan team have good back up in the following:
Stephen Kissa (second in Barcelona in 60:00 in February), Moses Kibet (60:59 PB, a former world cross-country top-10 placer) and Victor Kiplangat (who has a 60:59 PB).
However the fastest team on paper are the Kenyans. Their five runners have an average PB of 59:05!
They are missing a runner of the stature of Geoffrey Kamworor but with the two Ugandan track stars in attendance will surely set a fast pace to make it a true test of stamina.
The best of these appears to be Kibiwott Kandie, who this year won at Prague in 58:38 and also won at Ras Al Khaimah in 58:58.
He beat Kiplimo by a second in Sao Paulo at 15km.
The 2019 Prague winner Benard Kimeli (59:07) triumphed there with his sprint finish though his 2020 form is less impressive.
Benard Ngeno, a runner-up in Valencia last year (also a 59:07 PB), is one of the most consistent runners on the circuit and looks a safe bet for the top six. He has finished in the top three in his last seven half-marathons.
Leonard Barsoton was the 2017 world cross-country runner-up but his half-marathon form is not quite to the same level. He ran 59:09 in Valencia last year and won a 25km in Kolkata in 73:05 in December which shows good endurance.
The final Kenyan Maurice Gachaga has no known 2020 form and is the least accomplished but does have a 59:22 PB from Ras Al Khaimah last year.
The Ethiopian team is marginally less impressive but can still boast four runners in the 59:06 to 59:22 range.
The one who hasn’t, Hailemaryam Kiros, surprisingly won the Ethiopian trial for this race (held over 15km) and could be their best chance even though he has a very modest PB of just 61:08.
Guye Adola won the bronze medal in the 2014 championships in Copenhagen and his 59:06 PB was set then but he has little to back this form up recently with no races on the IAAF website given this year but he was fifth in the trial race.
Leul Gebresilase has a 59:18 PB (from Valencia in 2017) and a 2:04:02 marathon PB so should be among the strongest of those competing but he was only sixth in their trial
Andamlak Belihu at least has 2020 form but after a 59:52 in Houston, he has since dropped out of half-marathons at Ras Al Khaimah and Prague and was second in the 15km Ethiopian trial.
If he returns to his 2019 best (59:10 - to win New Delhi) and fifth in the Doha World Championships 10,000m in 26:56.71 then he could be a danger.
Based on his form of the last two years, Amedework Walelegn is less likely to contend though he has a 59:22 PB from New Delhi in 2018.
It is likely the medals will be between the nations of the big three.
The best of the rest may be Switzerland’s Julien Wanders.
Eighth in the last championships at Valencia, he has a 59:13 European record as a PB from Ras Al Khaimah last year and has also run a European 10km record of 27:13 early in 2020, plus is not afraid to mix it with the Africans.
South African Stephen Mokoko is another who has broken the hour before as has Turkey’s Kaan Kigen Özbilen but he was only 11th in Ras Al Khaimah when he ran that time in 2019 and he was eighth in these championships in 2018.
Based on their best time alone, none of the Brits will make the top 20 but a good sensible race, staying off the likely 58-minute pace up front, could see runners coming through on the second half picking off the brave and foolish.
Jake Smith (third in London’s Big Half in 62:00) may be the best in view of Callum Hawkins’ withdrawal.
Winning time 58:17
1 Joshua Cheptegei (UGA)
2 Kibiwott Kandie (KEN)
3 Jacob Kiplimo (UGA)
4 Leonard Barsoton (KEN)
5 Hailemaryam Kiros (ETH)
6 Benard Ngeno (KEN)
7 Andamlak Belihu (ETH)
8 Julien Wanders (SUI)
9 Stephen Mokoko (RSA)
10 Benard Kimeli (KEN)
Top Briton: Jake Smith
(Lead photo by NN Running Team)
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